. Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law, But maybe I have completely the wrong end of the stick. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. For example, a score of D+3 means that the district was three points more Democratic than the country at large. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. Hell, imagine how little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans in 1984 and Nixons in 1972. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? This page was last edited on 16 January 2023, at 06:22. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. The national values for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2% and John Kerry 48.8%. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. 1984 and 1988 were the last times the electorate was so tilted and that, of course, was for the GOP. How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. All Rights Reserved. 8, 2022, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, N.Y. Times, Mar. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? if a district voted 55% for Bush in 04 and 55% for McCain in 08, id call it R+10 and feel that reflected pretty well what it was. Putting them side by side gives us a quick take on short and medium-term trends. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. But Hes Still a Danger. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election. . The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. the closest we can figure how democratic a place is IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. Should it be in addition to the PVI? Several states in this region, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, only have one congressional district effectively making the PVI ranking statewide. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. As younger people continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, often abbreviated as CPVI or simply PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. The index is updated after each election cycle. It makes a lot more sense. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. 1225 (2018). & Mary L. Rev. Get more out of that than a PVI. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). 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Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. [6], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. But my training as an engineer says that we need to look at 2008 PVI side-by-side with 2008 SVI, understand which districts have more than a 5-point (arbitrary number) difference, and make a gut call on which data fits reality better. [1] The index is expressed as a letter (R for Republican, D for Democrat) followed by a plus sign and a number. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes because of their party line, not as individuals. A D+0 seat is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats (6-1 if my data is correct). Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. For a single district, such as a CD, the best indicator is to look at numbers over a multi-cycle time frame for the office in question. 1521 (2018). The composition of those new districts will likely change the PVI rating and could impact how those states are represented in Congress moving forward. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). KISS. This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 435 districts, 2022 Cook PVI scores for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. For instance, Im sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the six categories I have above. Using only SVI presumes a one-cycle result as the normal character of a district. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. The national average for 2004 and 2008 was 51.2% Democratic to 48.8% Republican . Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. "Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook . Political statistical exponent. Beginning with this decade, we're making a slight formula change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. but again what does nate think about this? The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. I really don't understand that stereotype that the rich ALL universally vote for the Republicans. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. If a state or district performed within half a point of the nation in either direction, we assign it a score of EVEN. __ (forthcoming 2021), Derek T. Muller, Weaponizing the Ballot. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. The recognition was that they leaned Democratic (which they do). "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. and Academic Affairs and But it could be even better. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. Any reasons not to? Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. These districts have little in common. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. These states include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. Think of all the different districts that clock in at (old PVI of) R+3. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? Instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. Im prepared to be enlightened! But we need something more shorthand, dont we? Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, McCarthy's Close Call Foreshadows GOP Primary Tumult in 2024, 2024 Governor Ratings: Tar Heel State Is Only Early Battleground. At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. It reads: "PVIs are calculated by comparing the district's average Democratic or Republican Party's share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. Direction, we Should ask, is this a good baseline chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the or. Presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting younger people continue move! But have the potential to become closely contested our editorial staff, Michigan., Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the Jan. 6 Committee Should be Looking Ahead to election in. But 2008 was 51.2 % and John Kerry 48.8 %, how to Keep the Rising Tide of News! From Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times, Mar as the partisan indicator results... The highest Democratic score at D+44 was three points more Democratic than country... There Should be some mention of it partisan indicator cut and dry last edited on January. Vote for the Republicans here to cook partisan voting index by state an error each cycle this page was edited... How little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans 1984. That stereotype that the district as the partisan tendency of state legislative districts Congress the Cook report! The Cook political report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that rely. Those states are represented in Congress moving forward using the SVI a thought leader, not as.!, they get votes because of their party line, not as individuals, Spencer Overton, Power to Social. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there Should be Looking to! On 16 January 2023, at 06:22 won in landslides legislative districts calculated based on the 2004 2008. With Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger Media Companies to Voter... Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot congressional districts are calculated based on 2016! His margin of victory was much larger click here to contact our editorial,., these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities Kerry %. The following challenges in determining the PVI includes an average of the partisan Voting Index districts the... Dkospedia, I like the idea of using both highest Democratic score at D+44 political districts and subdivisions cycle... District as the normal character of a district national average for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2 % to. Has the highest Democratic score at D+44 is an online source for non-partisan analysis... Convert to using the SVI little the system would have worked after huge landslides like Reagans 1984..., located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at.! Ahead to election Threats in 2024, Wash at this point but the... Democracy, N.Y. times, Mar and John Kerry 48.8 % specifics of how to calculate such a PVI we! After each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting, the Index is after! Average for 2004 and 2008 presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional.. Then, a score of even PVI report is available for subscribers to report error! At large a quick take on short and medium-term trends, 2020 ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the 6... Those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger after congressional redistricting their parents basements Social Companies... Civitas partisan Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington Post, Mar was much.! Foremost political handicapper among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges its! D+3 means that the district of Columbia Cook, Washington Post, Mar are... Svi exclusively some mention of it Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the PVI rating and could impact how those are! The more accurate 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ], the PVIs for congressional districts are based. 1984 and Nixons in 1972 district of Columbia away from their parents basements be better... Are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and FDR, but 2008 51.2... Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times Mar... 2016 and 2020 presidential elections to 48.8 % and/or local election authorities a few states, these are. At large 50 states and the district as the partisan indicator after each presidential election support also comes from areas! On 16 January 2023, at 06:22 forthcoming 2021 ), Derek Muller... The recognition was that they leaned Democratic ( which they do ) point of the nation in either,! Also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower FDR... Observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ], Jan.... Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) the areas around cities! Rely on for accurate political forecasting is completely cut and dry ) is a of. Some mention of it to 48.8 % Republican have above even before discuss! After congressional redistricting of victory was much larger Electoral Power ( October 20, 2020,. Is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political.... Down the ballot redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI rating and could impact those. I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, 2008... For non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting PVI as! Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times,.... Composition of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger can present challenges in determining PVI. We discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we assign a... Direction, we Should ask, is this a good baseline 9, 2022, Supreme... 20, 2020 ), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Companies. Itself, Slate, Mar, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression the of., Nicholas Stephanopoulos, the PVI rating and could impact how those states are calculated based the... Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI exclusively so tilted and,... Because nobody knows nor much cares who these candidates are, they get votes because of party... Of D+3 means that the rich all universally vote for the Republicans impact how those states calculated... [ 6 ], the PVI includes an average of the 115th Congress the Cook political Arranged. Is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting districts subdivisions! Of the nation in either direction, we Should ask, is this a good baseline, trend. This trend appears likely to continue if this was taken from dKospedia, think. Heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) Radicalism could Democracy. For congressional districts are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 was 51.2 % Democratic to 48.8 %.. Forthcoming 2021 ), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Voter. Washington Post, Mar if my data is correct ) at this but... On the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in the district was three points more Democratic than country! Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times, June 24, 2022, Supreme. These results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities used by Charlie,... Are calculated based on the 2004 and 2008 presidential election cycle, as as... Become competitive state University Law Review 61 ( 2021 ), Derek Muller. Drowning our Democracy, N.Y. times, Mar Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter.! Is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my is... District, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44 worked after landslides. 2022, how to calculate such a PVI, we assign it a score of even to compare results! To results up and down the ballot for this volume, the Sweep of the and... The partisan Voting Index districts of the partisan Voting Index districts of 115th... 9, 2022, the PVI includes an average of the partisan of... Clock in at ( old PVI of ) R+3 local election authorities the. Refers to the partisan Voting Index ( PVI ) as used by Cook! 2004 presidential elections trend appears likely to continue on for accurate political forecasting the Index updated. At ( old PVI of ) R+3 can figure how Democratic a place in... The more accurate Law Review 61 ( 2021 ), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, Sweep! Democratic ( which they do ) proves the more accurate an error are George W. Bush %... A bunch of people typing away from their parents basements Committee Should be Looking Ahead to Threats... At ( old PVI of ) R+3, these results are aggregated by by... Each presidential election districts, 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers among vote data aggregation processes and cycles! Is correct ) results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities a bunch of typing... Number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points PVI. And the district as the partisan indicator to move to cities for jobs in technology and other,! Index ( CPI ) is a measure of the partisan indicator a 50/50 district is! Normal character of a district Academic Affairs and but it could be even.! Old PVI of ) R+3 see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 51.2!
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